18: The problem with renewables

Introduce us and topic and John Lucas.

Intro

There is no doubt that we have the capacity to build enough renewables to power the entire world
- In fact, just a 100x100km¹ patch of the Sahara desert covered in photovoltaic cells could achieve this
There is also no doubt that renewables, especially wind and solar, are cheap enough, or will be cheap enough within the next 10 years, that we could financially afford to build enough renewables to power the entire world.
But alas, renewables suffer from a whole host of problems, but they are not totally un-remedy-able

Problems

Grid architecture²
- Grids are built for a traditional top-down architecture, distributing large amounts of energy from huge power plants to consumers.
- Small-scale generation
  - "Behind the meter" installations e.g. solar panels and to a limited extent wind power.
  - Domestic-level PV (photovoltaic → solar panels) generation currently quite preferable because the homeowner essentially ends up selling electricity surplus energy to the national grid - which is then deducted from overall bills. In this topology, it is also very attractive that the homeowner is not responsible for load-balancing their generated solar power.
- To successfully implement renewables, we must essentially transition back to a pre-1960s electricity grid model - one which is designed around local generation of power as opposed to the centralised coal/oil model previously favoured. Possible Example: Oxford Power Station - closed in 1960s as Didcot took over (see below).
  - Except with far more interconnection from electricity-generating areas to populated areas, which are often geographically separate.
  - Oxford power station (between Jericho and Botley) closed in 1969 as DPS took over. Its closure was actually on environmental grounds because it took water from the river to cool its turbines and, with no cooling towers, dumped it back into the river hot. Apparently also by the mid 20th century it was taking so much cooling water from the river that water mills were forced to shut - also mills are the reason why we have weirs and hence locks?). However, it operated for over 50yrs on a local-scale grid transmission model (also linked to the national grid AFAIK) is certainly viable.
    - The key difference is that we want small-scale renewable power
- Transmission
  - Renewable generation is often geographically far away from population centres.
    - Hence it is difficult to get electricity from generation to consumption
      - In Vermont (yes, hello Hisho), a solar plant application had to be denied due to the inability of the grid to support the extra generation capacity in that area, despite Vermont's renewable energy goals
- Smaller geographical areas - e.g. Orkney islands³
  - Huge amount of wind generation, but unable to transport it back to mainland
- HUGE SUPERGRIDS
  - EU 10% interconnection goal⁴
    - Interconnection capacity / total generation capacity
Variability⁵
- Wind peaks... when it's windy
  - Though offshore wind is more reliable
- Solar doesn't work at night and can be variable during the day
- Hydro is variable on larger timescales due to rain and drought⁶
- Wave power (though currently not really used) depends on tides, currents and winds
Nuclear being shut down
- Long-term investment
- Public fear (albeit completely unfounded) about nuclear accidents
The need for much more electricity
- Most green solutions require a transition from fossil fuel burning to electric-based solutions, such as but not limited to:
  - Green hydrogen generation
  - Electric vehicles
    - EV chargers: energy channelled through national grid as opposed to people buying gasoline as their main automotive energy source.
  - Heat pumps
    - Possibly worth noting that these are highly preferable compared with resistive heating insofar as they bring about a higher heating power than their actual consumed electrical power - which is not the case with resistive heating
      - They just transfer the heat from outside rather than actually "creating" the heat, hence its far superior efficiency
        
        So, from point of view of maximising efficient use of grid, it is best to incentivise heat pumps (higher upfront cost; lower running costs) over resistive heating (very low upfront cost; high running cost)
        
        Hence govt initiatives (e.g. current 5000 pound initiative) and need for more similar more favourable such offerings.
        
        Also, we need richer people to be early adopters of this technology to drive the price down for those who are less fortunate/privileged
        
        Although UK & European heating topology makes "retrofitting" of heat pumps much harder than in US properties.
        
        This is a product of smaller and older housing - which would historically have had either no central heating or only a back-boiler.
        
        Other costs in UK include better insulation and larger radiators, hence why we won't be installing one at present, sadly.
        
        The US centralised air-based heating system lends itself much more easily to heat pumps
        
        And properties with standard AC can also easily be retrofitted with heat pumps as they can occupy the same form factor
        
        An air conditioner is very close to a heat pump already - so would be good to incentivise/mandate AC manufacturers to include heat pump functionality as standard (e.g. Daikin Inverter product line already does this IME)
        
        Even the technology is the same - just an AC in reverse to remove heat from outside and bring it in. Only difference it works both ways!
        
        And hopefully uses eco-friendly refrigerants (e.g. R407C⁷ - which can also be used instead of R22 to "retrofill" older AC / heat pump units)
        
        As opposed to CFCs (outlawed 1987⁸) and HFCs (being phased out currently⁹)
        
        So "heat pump" isn't really a great name
        
        They do really look the same IMO - hence the confusion with Playing cards set.
Lack of government investigation into the solutions
- General lack of political will to actually do anything.
Renewable Imperialism¹⁰
- Rich countries exploiting the renewable (solar and wind) potential of poorer countries for their own renewable goals, without thought for the needs of the host country
  - Especially European exploitation of North African solar potential for their own needs.
    - Concentrated solar power uses huge amounts of water, limiting what's available for locals.
Opposition to renewable power from public on appearance grounds (esp. wind turbines; possible case study: off-shore wind farm by South Downs National Park).
- Stupid Tucker Carlson blaming Texas outage on wind turbines¹¹
- General opposition to often unsightly renewable sources
- This is just selfish. These people who complain about this don't see the horrors pollution creates.
- Also ironic given that the public has basically accepted the imposition of coal/oil power stations over time, almost as integral parts of the landscape in some places.
Grid storage is prohibitively expensive
- Once this is factored into the cost of solar panels, the equation looks far less favourable!¹²
Nuclear 📉

Solutions

Grid Interconnections
- Thick cables to connect regions, countries and continents
- Ensure strict regulations on power factor are maintained (particularly relevant / potentially problematic to EV chargers) to maximise efficient use of cabling/transformers.
  - For example EU CCS¹³ mandate for EVs. Compared to the ridiculous situation in the US where each EV manufacturer has to make their own supercharger network!
- Allows for both exporting and importing of energy when required
- Balances out the variability of renewables
Smart meters?
- Slightly controversial. They do allow demand to be monitored and predicted in advance. However, they charge the user based on apparent power (not real power) which many people regard as penny-pinching insofar as real power (not apparent power) is what the generator actually produces.
  - High apparent power relative to real power is, in essence, brought about by surplus power which only exists in the supply cabling/transformers of AC transmission grids. Real power is actually what measures the energy that gets created/used.
    - How to solve for this?
    - Enforce aforementioned power factor standards!
    - Power factor is a 0-1 ratio of real power to apparent power. Historically, all devices (incandescent lights and resistive heating elements) had equal apparent and real power - so all delivered power in the cables was directly used. Highly electronic loads (particularly EVs) draw more power than they use (large apparent power) - the surplus of which they continuously return back to the grid on every oscillation of the 50Hz AC supply, thus meaning that the cabling has to handle power entering and leaving the EV charger — a device which should only receive power!
      - Hence why the power grid doesn't really work well with a water-pipe analogy.
        
        Exactly!
      - It's important to realise that a low power factor doesn't mean that the device is inefficient in terms of the efficiency represented by a Sankey Diagram. What a low PF means is that, 50 times per second (with the 50Hz mains), the device draws more power than it needs and then returns the excess power to the grid.
- Smart grid (is this different?) so that certain non-time-sensitive electrical demands can be scheduled to balance out demand.
  - Historical example: Economy 7 tariff?¹⁴ - not exactly smart, but an example of levelling off grid demand
  - Example: hydrogen production, potentially industrial applications and grid storage?
Low-carbon steady sources
- Nuclear
  - TerraPower
    - A Bill Gates-backed company that is making a completely failsafe nuclear reactor that can run on nuclear waste from other plants. GENIUS! 🤯¹⁵